Solar research specialist PHOTON Consulting says saturation of one or more large PV markets within the next five years will drive a downturn for PV manufacturers “more severe than anything the sector has faced to-date.”
This conclusion is found in the company’s latest research report, Solar Annual 2009: Total Eclipse. While PHOTON’s near-term outlook for sector growth is very positive, the firm’s analysts, researchers and consultants believe PV prices will crash in 2013.
Solar Annual 2009: Total Eclipse offers advice on surviving the downturn, highlighting leading companies best positioned to succeed in an environment where one or more key PV markets ‘turn off.’
PHOTON says its five-year industry forecast is based on screening of over 1,500 key and emerging solar companies and a detailed review of the global PV supply chain, including company-by-company and market-by-market data and analysis of production, prices, costs, profit margins and installation volumes.
Ryan Boas, a co-author of the report, said in a statement, “Solar Annual 2009: Total Eclipse provides a positive near term view of the sector combined with a critical warning: very rapid, profitable sector growth in 2010-2012 will likely lead to saturation in one or more key markets, with negative consequences for the sector as a whole and particularly for manufacturing companies that are unprepared. Total Eclipse provides companies with the insights and supporting data needed to understand, prepare for and profit from the crash dynamics.”