Q3 Emerging Markets Growth Hits 9 Quarter Low

Oct 12 2011 | 8:13am ET

The HSBC Emerging Markets Index slipped from to 51.9 in Q3 2011 from 54.2 in Q2, registering the weakest growth in nine quarters.

Manufacturing output in these markets fell for the first time in nine successive quarters. Business activity among service providers, on the other hand, increased but at its slowest pace since Q2 2009.

Stephen King, HSBC’s chief economist, said: "It is now apparent that world trade growth peaked in the first quarter. Companies in the emerging world have reacted by clearing their order backlogs at a faster rate than before, helping to support activity near-term. But in the absence of any quick rebound in trade momentum, the weakness revealed in this latest EMI is likely to show up in future employment losses. Already, jobs growth in the emerging world appears to have stagnated.”

Emerging market manufacturers reported lower volumes of new export business for the first time in nine quarters. Foreign order levels fell across the majority of markets, with the Czech Republic, Saudi Arabia and UAE the only exceptions.

In terms of inflation, the survey suggests that policy tightening across the emerging world has weakened inflationary pressures, with input-cost inflation hitting a four-quarter low across EMI markets.

The HSBC EMI is calculated using PMI data produced by global financial information services company Markit.


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