Friday, 25 July 2014
Last updated 16 hours ago
Dec 10 2012 | 9:14am ET
Bullish hedge fund managers outnumber their bearish counterparts three to one according to a new survey from Aksia.
The research firm polled 168 “institutional caliber” managers collectively responsible for managing about $900 billion and found them “bullish on financial assets, comfortable with the stability of financial markets, and though clearly uncertain on outcomes, less sensitive to the impact of macro/political risks.”
Managers are especially bullish on emerging markets and gold which are expected to deliver the strongest performance in 2013. More than a third of the managers polled expect double-digit returns from these asset classes.
A full 88% of respondents said the U.S. housing market had bottomed while only 52% expect a large-scale sell-off of assets by European banks (compared to 83% a year ago).
Managers are also less worried about counterparty risk—CDS spread triggers are decreasing in importance for hedge fund managers with only 36% of managers reporting their use (versus 50% last year) and existing trigger levels are higher.
Aksia says managers are “reasonably optimistic” on European equities with 63% predicting positive performance in the EuroStoxx 600 in 2013 and 25% expecting returns in excess of 10%.
Pension funds are exerting significant influence, with 68% of managers listing direct allocations from pensions as the fastest-growing part of their AUM. Funds of funds, on the other hand, are waning, with 63% of managers reporting cuts in their FoF allocations.
Said Aksia CEO Jim Vos in a statement: “This survey appears to show that managers are looking through much of the 'noise' and headlines that bombard us daily. At a minimum, it illustrates a belief in near term stability in the markets and less concern about left-tail risks.”
Jul 8 2014 | 10:48am ET
The surge in derivatives regulation is among the most complex challenges facing the financial services industry today. Northern Trust’s Joshua Satten recently spoke with FINalternatives to share insights into the challenges presented by new regulation and explore how the industry is responding. Read more…