Futures Trader Sounds Off On Market Turmoil

Aug 17 2007 | 11:46am ET

Pascal Guessas, a CTA and founder of Montague Financial, has a few choice words about the current market volatility, and he’s betting most people who hear them are not going to by happy.

“I think that the down move that we have seen is far, far from over, and that we, in the U.S., will probably enter into the worst recession this country as ever seen,” begins Guessas, in a missive to investors.

“Do you remember about 10 months ago when God (a.k.a. Greenspan) dared to mention the ‘R’ word.... Does anyone of you really believe that this comment was just pure coincidence? Only CNBC and the large majority of their guests believed it was, and kept on talking the market up and up and up as if it would go on forever. Larry oh Larry what are you talking about... Goldilocks scenario....?”

The sub-prime debacle is not contained as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke would suggest, according to Guessas, but is contagious affecting all investors and every part of the housing sector.

“There are a few more indicators that show that this is far from over but the latest one and most important one is the European Central Bank, which has injected so far in excess of US$200 billion to bail out a few institutions that made bad trading decisions. These people will never learn from past mistakes, like when Japan refused to let most banks with bad loans in their books go bust and entered the longest period of recession in their history (by the way they are still in it).”

Guessas’ P100, P50 and P-option futures programs are currently up about 7%, 16% and 8%, respectively, through Aug. 13. “Trading will be very light for the remainder of August, almost 95% of this month’s performance was realized on currencies as we made a conscious decision to avoid most trading signals on stock indices,” he wote.


In Depth

PAAMCO: Will Inflation Deflate the Asset Bubble?

Jan 30 2018 | 9:49pm ET

As the U.S. shifts from monetary stimulus to fiscal stimulus, market pricing should...

Lifestyle

CFA Institute To Add Computer Science To Exam Curriculum

May 24 2017 | 9:25pm ET

Starting in 2019, financial industry executives sitting for the coveted Chartered...

Guest Contributor

Boost Hedge Fund Marketing ROI By Raising Your ROO

Feb 14 2018 | 9:57pm ET

Tasked with delivering returns on client capital, a common dilemma for many alternative...

 

FINalternatives Trending

From the current issue of