Futures Trader Sounds Off On Market Turmoil

Aug 17 2007 | 11:46am ET

Pascal Guessas, a CTA and founder of Montague Financial, has a few choice words about the current market volatility, and he’s betting most people who hear them are not going to by happy.

“I think that the down move that we have seen is far, far from over, and that we, in the U.S., will probably enter into the worst recession this country as ever seen,” begins Guessas, in a missive to investors.

“Do you remember about 10 months ago when God (a.k.a. Greenspan) dared to mention the ‘R’ word.... Does anyone of you really believe that this comment was just pure coincidence? Only CNBC and the large majority of their guests believed it was, and kept on talking the market up and up and up as if it would go on forever. Larry oh Larry what are you talking about... Goldilocks scenario....?”

The sub-prime debacle is not contained as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke would suggest, according to Guessas, but is contagious affecting all investors and every part of the housing sector.

“There are a few more indicators that show that this is far from over but the latest one and most important one is the European Central Bank, which has injected so far in excess of US$200 billion to bail out a few institutions that made bad trading decisions. These people will never learn from past mistakes, like when Japan refused to let most banks with bad loans in their books go bust and entered the longest period of recession in their history (by the way they are still in it).”

Guessas’ P100, P50 and P-option futures programs are currently up about 7%, 16% and 8%, respectively, through Aug. 13. “Trading will be very light for the remainder of August, almost 95% of this month’s performance was realized on currencies as we made a conscious decision to avoid most trading signals on stock indices,” he wote.


In Depth

Q&A: Open Season For Closed-End Funds

Aug 29 2014 | 10:00am ET

When Maury Fertig and Bob Huffman, former Salomon Brothers coworkers, launched...

Lifestyle

Och Funds Women In Finance Initiative At U-M

Aug 28 2014 | 3:01pm ET

Och-Ziff Capital founder Daniel Och and his wife have made a "generous donation"...

Guest Contributor

Looking Ahead: What’s In Store For Managed Futures?

Aug 22 2014 | 12:52pm ET

The last five years were phenomenal for investors in equity indices. Will the next...

 

Editor's Note

    Get A Sneak Peak Of The Alpha Pages

    Aug 25 2014 | 11:21am ET

    As many of you know, FINalternatives was recently acquired by the owners of Futures magazine, a firm called The Alpha Pages LLC. Today marks the soft-launch of a new sister site for both publications. As its name suggests, The Alpha Pages will cover all types of alternative investments, going far beyond the more well-known ones such as hedge funds and private equity. Read more…

 

Futures Magazine

July/August 2014 Cover

The time was right

Commodities/Futures magazine launched at the precipice of a revolution in the futures industry—really a revolution in the idea of risk management—that would move it from a small niche industry to ...

The Alpha Pages

TAP July/August 2014 Cover

The Alpha Pages Interview: Senator Rand Paul

Senator Paul sat down in the debut series of the Alpha Pages Interview to discuss the broken tax code, regulation surrounding Bitcoin, and his plans for the 2016 Presidential election.