Alternative Investment Industry Foresees Continued Strength of US Economy

Jan 18 2018 | 5:25pm ET

The New York Alternative Investment Roundtable has recently conducted a survey regarding its members’ expectations for 2018.

Of the respondents to this survey, 38% were fund managers; 21% were allocators; 17% were risk management or trading; 21% were service providers; and 3% were other industry participants.

To summarize, the survey indicates that many members of the New York Alternative Investment Roundtable believe that the U.S. economy will continue to strengthen and that, as a result, the Fed will raise interest rates at least once in 2018.

Despite of their ongoing confidence in the U.S. economy, Roundtable members believe that emerging markets are poised to be the best performers in 2018.

Following are some of the key findings of the survey:

  • 89% of respondents believe that the U.S. will remain a global economic superpower while 11% think the U.S. will lose it status as an economic superpower.
  • When asked how the market will perform in 2018, 28% of respondents believe it will be up between 0% and 5%; 41% believe it will be up more than 5%; 24% think it will be down between 0% and 5%; and 7% think it will be down more than 5%.
  • When asked how the Mueller investigation is likely to impact the equity markets in the coming year, 21% of respondents think it will negatively impact the market; 24% think that the market will continue to go up, despite the investigation; and 55% think that the investigation will not have any impact on the markets.
  • When asked where assets under management within the hedge fund industry will be three years from now: 55% of respondents believe assets will rise above the $3 trillion mark, while 45% believe they will be below $3 trillion.
  • When asked where the price of a barrel of crude will be by the end of 2018, 4% of respondents believe it will rise above $70; 36% think it will be in the $60 to $70 range; 43% think it will be in the $50 to $60 range; 14% think it will be in the $40 to $50 range; and 3% think it will fall below $30 per barrel.
  • When asked how the U.S. economy will perform over the next 12 months and whether the Fed will likely raise interest rates in 2018, 7% of respondents think that the U.S. economy is going to weaken and that, as a result, the Fed will be forced to hold off on its plans to raise interest rates; 62% of respondents think that the economy will strengthen and the Fed will raise interest rates at least once in 2018; and 31% think that the Fed will reassess monetary policy.
  • When asked to rank the United States, China, Europe, Japan and emerging markets in the order they believe they will perform in 2018, 22% of respondents believe that the U.S. will perform best; 17% believe that China will perform best; 22% believe that Europe will be best; 6% believe Japan will perform best and 33% believe that emerging markets will be the winners in 2018.

 

 

 


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