If at least half of his predictions come true in 2009, then Byron Wien, chief investment strategist at Pequot Capital Management, may be a very popular man at Christmastime.

Wien, who has issued his economic, financial market and political “surprises” every year since 1986, said the Standard and Poor’s 500 will rise to 1,200 this year—a better than 30% increase—and, in anticipation of a second-half recovery, the market will improve from a base of investor despondency.

“The mantra changes from ‘fortunes have been lost’ to ‘fortunes can still be made,’” he prognisticated. “Higher-quality corporate bonds, leveraged loans and mortgages lead the way.”

Wien also predicted that low U.S. Treasury interest rates, coupled with huge borrowing by the Treasury, will send the dollar into a serious downward slide. As a result, he said overseas investors will become concerned that “the currency printing presses will never stop.”

On the housing front, Wien said the market will bottom out ahead of schedule in the fall with house prices stabilizing after dropping 15% from year-end 2008 levels.

“The Obama stimulus program proves effective and a slow growth recovery begins before year-end. Third and fourth quarter real gross domestic product numbers are positive,” he said.

Nationally, Wien forecasts that the savings rate in the U.S. fails to improve beyond 3%, as most economists expect resulting in a spending resumption as the economic growth turns positive in the second half, making Christmas 2009 the best ever.

On the local scene, Wien says falling tax revenues from the financial sector will cause New York State to threaten bankruptcy and other states and municipalities follow. The Federal government is forced to step in and provide substantial assistance and the New York Post will scream, “When will the bailouts stop?”

Wien offered no prediction on whether the newly-reopened insider trading investigation into his firm will bear any rotten fruit.